2025 Kentucky Derby predictions, odds, horses, post positions, date: Surprising picks by horse racing expert

Last year, 88-year-old D. Wayne Lukas became the oldest trainer to win a Triple Crown race when Seize the Grey won the Preakness. Now 89, Lukas wants to top the 77-year-old Art Sherman (2014, California Chrome) and become the oldest Kentucky Derby-winning trainer. The winner’s circle at the Run for the Roses is a place Lukas is familiar with since he enters the 2025 Kentucky Derby as a four-time champion. None of the four, however, has come in this millennium and he’ll saddle American Promise for the Kentucky Derby 2025. At 30-1, American Promise is among the biggest of horse racing longshots in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, but Seize the Grey had the third-longest odds when he won the Preakness.

Post time is at 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday from Churchill Downs. Journalism (3-1) leads the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds to win. With the Kentucky Derby annually featuring the largest field in North American racing, you’ll want to see what Santa Anita-based racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, considering the success she’s had handicapping this race.

In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, she gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.

She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young’s win in the $20 million Saudi Cup, Journalism’s win in the San Felipe Stakes and Sandman’s win in the Arkansas Derby this year. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.

Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Yu is completely fading Sandman, even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top favorites. Tapit’s bloodline is well-established enough at this point that you can virtually guarantee that his progeny will take significant action in a big race. However, Sandman’s performances have been incredibly uneven, as he’s managed only one stakes win in five appearances and needed a blistering early pace to set him up to take advantage of the closing speed that has become a calling card of Tapit’s sons.

“He will need help up front again and will need to find a trip in the 20-horse field, but he delivers a steady run once produced. Being outside isn’t ideal, but since he just drops to the back of the pack, this draw might keep him in the clear. Lots of haters dislike his prep saying that his final quarter in the Arkansas Derby was pedestrian,” Yu told SportsLine. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another curveball: Yu is high on Luxor Cade , even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Luxor Cafe qualified for the 2025 Kentucky Derby field in Japan, winning a pair of races in that series. His most notable victory came in the Fukuryu Stakes on March 29, when he dominated in a five-length win.

He is now riding a four-race winning streak and is one of three 2025 Kentucky Derby horses who is the son of a Triple Crown winner. Luxor Cafe was sired by American Pharoah, who won the Triple Crown in 2015. Yu notes that Luxor Cafe’s “stalking running style works well in this race,” one reason why she is backing him as a longshot in the Run for the Roses. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks

Moreover, Yu is high on a double-digit longshot who has been getting over the Churchill Downs surface “perfectly” this week. She is including this horse in her 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She’s sharing which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2025 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out. 

2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions

2025 Kentucky Derby horse previews

1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 10 Grande | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty | 21 Baeza