50 migrants a week could be sent back to France in pilot of ‘one in, one out’ deal

Chris Mason
Political editor

The key word today, and it is freighted with politics, is “deterrent”.

The prime minister has said both he and President Macron agree on the need for “a new deterrent to break the business model of the
gangs”.

The big question is the extent to which what is agreed to
today amounts to that, particularly in the short term.

Will it put people off getting in a small boat?

The pilot scheme is expected to involve around 50
migrants a week being returned to France, in return for the UK taking the
same number of asylum seekers in France who are deemed to have a legitimate
case to move to the UK.

Critics, including the Conservatives, say this would
amount to about 5% of those who currently are attempting crossing and so would
be an inadequate deterrent.

The Tories point to the deterrent they planned but
never got started — the idea of sending migrants to Rwanda. This scheme was
scrapped when Labour won the election.

But it is true to say this new agreement, albeit limited in
scale initially, marks a new moment in Franco-British diplomacy on this issue —
the willingness of France to take back some of those who embark on the cross
Channel journey.

The test, in the months and years ahead, can it be scaled
up sufficiently to make a noticeable impact on the numbers. Or, to put it more
bluntly, do the numbers attempting a crossing start to fall, or not?

Because
unless they do, the scheme, on this side of the Channel at least, is likely to
be seen as a failure.