Americans Are Behaving As If They’re Going Into a Recession, Delta CEO Says

Americans are behaving as if they’re in a recession, Delta Air Lines (DAL) CEO Ed Bastian said Wednesday as the carrier withdrew its full-year forecast.

Corporate and domestic leisure travel has stalled since late February, according to Delta, the first major airline to release earnings since widespread tariffs were announced. Demand has waned because of bad weather, “high-profile aircraft incidents,” and global economic uncertainties, Bastian told CNBC.

“We’re acting as if we’re going [into] a recession. I think everyone is going into a defensive posture,” Bastian said. “…If that continues and we don’t get resolution soon, we will probably end up in a recession.”

Delta reported better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results but said it would not affirm full-year projections at this time “given current uncertainty.” Current-quarter revenue is seen between 2% below to 2% above Q2 2024 levels, the company said.

Delta had planned to expand its capacity by about 4% in the second half of 2025, but no longer envisions growing, Bastian said. Business travel was up about 10% before stalling, he added. Price-sensitive consumers are buying fewer domestic tickets, the CEO said, adding that international travel, summer bookings, and premium ticket sales remain strong. 

‘Uncharted, Unprecedented Uncertainty’

“We’re in uncharted, unprecedented uncertainty,” Bastian said, adding that it was a “self-inflicted situation.”

UBS analysts downgraded a number of airline stocks days after the Trump administration unveiled “reciprocal” tariffs on goods from most of the U.S.’ trading partners.

Last month, several airlines lowered their forecasts as Americans were growing uneasy about the economy and planning fewer trips, executives said.

“We are seeing what others are seeing,” JetBlue Airways (JBLU) CEO Joanna Geraghty said at a conference last month, according to a transcript provided by AlphaSense. “The peaks remain healthy. The troughs obviously are under pressure.”

Consumers spent “around 6% below 2024 levels at the start of this year” on airfare, according to Bank of America’s analysis of debit and credit card spending released March 28.

Major domestic airlines have lost money actually flying passengers since their costs skyrocketed during the pandemic. They’ve been profitable thanks to co-branded credit card deals.