Barbara Lee springs into lead as Oakland mayor’s race flips

In a dramatic turn from election night, Barbara Lee now leads the Oakland mayoral contest — with 53% of the vote after the ranked-choice runoff. 

Dozens of workers have spent the three days since polls closed Tuesday night tallying about 44,000 ballots, which were added to roughly 49,000 counted by the end of election night.

The Alameda County Registrar of Voters estimates that most of the ballots cast in the race have now been tallied. 

Most of what remains are mail-in ballots that will arrive over the next few days. Then the registrar will process “uncured” ballots — going back to voters who had errors in their ballots to try to fix them and have them counted.

The final result may not be known for a few more weeks. But the election looks likely to be déjà vu for Taylor, who in the 2022 mayor’s race also began with a lead before losing narrowly to Sheng Thao. 

Lee’s campaign released a statement that called the results “encouraging” but stopped short of declaring victory. 

“We are exceeding expected turnout for this special election, because the people of Oakland care deeply about our future. This is democracy at work, and I look forward to further election updates,” Lee said. 

Lee is also winning, with over 50%, when only taking first-place votes into consideration before the ranked-choice tabulations.

But if the former congresswoman is elected, it will not have been with the ease that many political observers expected after she entered the race in January. Loren Taylor was in the lead after the first batch of results was released around 8 p.m. on Tuesday.

The former city councilmember now has 47%.

The flip in results follows a familiar pattern: progressive voters tend to fill out and deliver their ballots closer to the election deadline, so they’re counted in later batches. Lee is carrying the Oakland flatlands, which tend to vote more to the left. 

Taylor has a stronghold across the Oakland hills, where residents tend to support more moderate candidates like him and typically vote earlier.

Charlene Wang poised to take District 2

The other race on the special election ballot looks even clearer.

Charlene Wang has held a strong lead since Tuesday in the race to fill former Councilmember Nikki Fortunato Bas’ seat in District 2. Bas was elected to the Alameda County Board of Supervisors in November. 

Wang has 59% of the vote, with Kara Murray-Badal in second place with 41%, after ranked-choice calculations. The gap between the two candidates has narrowed significantly since Tuesday but it would be virtually impossible for Murray-Badal to close it completely at this point.

Wang, a two-time council candidate with a background working in the federal government, ran on a platform that prioritized public safety. Murray-Badal, who works in housing policy, had the strongest backing of Oakland’s labor unions.

The registrar will next update results a week from today, on Friday, April 25.