NFL Week 18 playoff scenarios: With NFC West title settled, what’s next?

With one day left in the NFL regular season, 12 of the 14 seeds in the postseason bracket remain undecided.

Nary a seed in the AFC has been solidified, including the No. 1 spot and the first-round bye that comes with it. That seed will go to either the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots or Jacksonville Jaguars, with the Jags the lone team that could land anywhere from No. 1 to No. 7 in the AFC.

The top seed in the NFC was finally decided Saturday night with the Seattle Seahawks’ win over the San Francisco 49ers in the Bay Area, but there’s plenty more to be determined in that conference, too. In fact, things are so absurd in the NFC South that a game between teams guaranteed to miss the playoffs will now determine whether the Carolina Panthers (8-9) or Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) represent the division with the NFC’s No. 4 seed.

A graphic breakdown of all the Week 18 playoff seeding scenarios can be found here. Below is a listing of all the games with postseason stakes on the line, which matchups have been set and how each team with a shot at home-field advantage in the first round can clinch a top-four seed Sunday.

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AFC

MATCHUPS SET:
No. 1 seed and first-round bye: TBD
No. 7 seed TBD at No. 2 seed TBD
No. 6 seed TBD at No. 3 seed TBD
No. 5 seed TBD at No. 4 seed TBD

CLINCHED BUT SEED NOT SET:
Denver Broncos (13-3) — AFC West
New England Patriots (13-3) — AFC East
Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) — playoff berth
Houston Texans (11-5) — playoff berth
Buffalo Bills (11-5) — AFC Wild Card berth
Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) — AFC Wild Card berth

AFC East

Miami Dolphins (7-9) at New England Patriots (13-3)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (ET), Fox

New England is the AFC No. 1 seed with:

1. New England win + Denver loss or tie OR

2. New England tie + Denver loss

New England is the AFC No. 2 seed with:

1. New England win + Denver win OR

2. New England tie + Denver tie OR

3. New England loss or tie + Jacksonville loss or tie

New England is the AFC No. 3 seed with:

1. New England loss + Jacksonville win

New York Jets (3-13) at Buffalo Bills (11-5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (ET), CBS

Buffalo’s division title hopes faded last week with a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Bills could fall anywhere between the Nos. 5 and 7 seeds, with a loss to potentially the worst team in Jets history guaranteeing the latter.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. (ET), NBC

Baltimore is AFC North champion and the AFC No. 4 seed with:

1. Baltimore win

Pittsburgh is AFC North champion and the AFC No. 4 seed with:

1. Pittsburgh win or tie

This is as straightforward as it gets, hence the prime-time slot. One question hovering over the festivities: Could this be the end for Mike Tomlin or John Harbaugh?

AFC South

Tennessee Titans (3-13) at Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)

Sunday, 1 p.m. (ET), Fox

Jacksonville is AFC South champion and the AFC No. 1 seed with:

1. Jacksonville win + Denver loss + New England loss

Jacksonville is AFC South champion and the AFC No. 2 seed with:

1. Jacksonville win + New England win + Denver loss OR

2. Jacksonville win + Denver win + New England loss

Jacksonville is AFC South champion and the AFC No. 3 seed with:

1. Jacksonville loss + Houston loss or tie OR

2. Jacksonville win + Denver win + New England win

Indianapolis Colts (8-8) at Houston Texans (11-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. (ET), CBS

Houston is AFC South champion and the AFC No. 3 seed with:

1. Houston win + Jacksonville loss

Yes, the Texans still have a chance at winning the AFC South. But given that it hinges on the 3-13 Titans winning in Jacksonville, that chance could best be described as slim. More likely than not, this team is the No. 5 seed and hitting the road to play whoever wins the AFC North rock fight between Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

AFC West

Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) at Denver Broncos (13-3)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (ET), CBS

Denver is the AFC No. 1 seed with:

1. Denver win OR

2. Denver tie + New England loss or tie OR

3. New England loss + Jacksonville loss or tie

Denver is the AFC No. 2 seed with:

1. Denver loss + New England win + Jacksonville loss OR

2. Denver loss + Jacksonville win + New England loss

Denver is the AFC No. 3 seed with:

1. Denver loss + New England win + Jacksonville win

The Chargers’ chances of taking the AFC West away from the Broncos disappeared with last week’s home loss to Houston. Like the Bills, their seed possibilities range from No. 5 to No. 7, with a second straight opening-round game on the road guaranteed. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is sitting this one out in the Mile High City, which goes a long way toward explaining why the Broncos are 13.5-point favorites on BetMGM.

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NFC

SEEDS/MATCHUPS SET:
No. 1 seed and first-round bye: Seattle Seahawks (14-3)
No. 7 Green Bay Packers (9-6-1) at No. 2 TBD
No. 6 TBD at No. 3 TBD
No. 5 TBD at No. 4 TBD

CLINCHED BUT SEED NOT SET:
Chicago Bears (11-5) — NFC North
Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) — NFC East
San Francisco 49ers (12-5) — NFC Wild Card berth
Los Angeles Rams (11-5) — NFC Wild Card berth

NFC East

Washington Commanders (4-12) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (ET), CBS

Philadelphia is the NFC No. 2 seed with:

1. Philadelphia win + Chicago loss or tie

Philadelphia is the NFC No. 3 seed with:

1. Chicago win OR

2. Philadelphia loss OR

3. Philadelphia tie + Chicago tie

The Eagles could still secure home-field advantage through the first two rounds with some help from Detroit, but coach Nick Sirianni is sitting multiple key starters, including quarterback Jalen Hurts.

NFC North

Detroit Lions (8-8) at Chicago Bears (11-5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (ET), Fox

Chicago is the NFC No. 2 seed with:

1. Chicago win OR

2. Philadelphia loss OR

3. Chicago tie + Philadelphia tie

Chicago is the NFC No. 3 seed with:

1. Chicago loss + Philadelphia win OR

2. Chicago tie + Philadelphia win

The Green Bay Packers are starting third-string quarterback Clayton Tune at Minnesota with the No. 7 seed already secured, and the Bears are playing for the right to host back-to-back playoff games at frigid Soldier Field. The Eagles’ decision to sit several starters sure helps.

NFC South

New Orleans (6-10) at Atlanta Falcons (7-9)

Sunday, 1 p.m. (ET), Fox

Carolina Panthers (8-9) are NFC South champions and the NFC No. 4 seed with:

1. Atlanta Falcons win

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) are NFC South champions and the NFC No. 4 seed with:

1. Atlanta Falcons loss or tie

The story of the NFC South? Two teams with losing records, both of which were eliminated from playoff contention long ago, will decide which of the other two teams in the division with losing records will get to host a first-round playoff game next week. Some reason for hope for the Panthers after Saturday’s loss: Chris Olave, the Saints’ top receiver, is not playing after receiving a blood-clot diagnosis, and the Falcons have won three straight.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals (3-13) at Los Angeles Rams (11-5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (ET), Fox

The Rams can do no better than the No. 5 seed and no worse than the No. 6 seed after Monday night’s stunning 27-24 loss at Atlanta. The calculus is simple: Win and get the No. 5 seed (with San Francisco getting No. 6); lose or tie and get the No. 6 (with San Francisco at No. 5).