Nvidia Earnings Updates: Tariff Impact and China Market Share in Focus

A concern often raised by Nvidia investors is the small pool of customers it has depended on to generate billions of dollars in revenue. A handful of Big Tech firms have accounted for more than half of Nvidia’s data center revenue as the AI boom has taken shape.

But Nvidia has shown signs that its days of depending on West Coast tech firms may soon be over. Deals to sell its chips to nation states with plans to build sovereign AI capabilities have been picking up. Investors could look to get a clearer roadmap on plans to widen its customer base.

— Hasan Chowdhury

Nvidia should post a “modest” sales beat in the first quarter, but analysts at Bank of America said the company’s guidance for the current quarter could be “messy. ” They pointed to the impact of tariffs on Nvidia’s shipments from China.

The bank estimated that Nvidia could see a $4 billion to $5 billion headwind on shipments from China in the second quarter. Sales guidance for the second quarter could be revised down to $41 billion, down from the $46 billion consensus estimate.

BofA estimated that Nvidia’s total sales for the 2026 fiscal year could be around 6% below consensus, while earnings could be around 10% below consensus.

“Despite these near-term headwinds, we maintain Buy on NVDA, a top sector pick given its unique leverage to the global AI deployment cycle and possibility for China sales recovery on new redesigned/compliant products later in the year,” analysts wrote.

The bank has a price target of $160 a share, implying 19% upside from current levels.

First quarter

Second quarter

• Revenue estimate: $46.37 billion
• Adjusted gross margin estimate: 72%
• Adjusted operating expenses estimate: $3.86 billion
• Capital expenditure estimate: $913.9 million

Full year 2026

• Revenue estimate: $200.56 billion
• Capital expenditure estimate: $3.82 billion