Panthers fall to Bucs, division decided Sunday

The Panthers missed an opportunity to take care of their own business Saturday, leaving the two teams tied at 8-9, and the Buccaneers would advance based on the common opponents tiebreaker, unless the Falcons beat the Saints Sunday to create a three-way tie atop the NFC South.

If that happens, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head among the three teams. In that instance, the Panthers would win based on sweeping the Falcons to give them a 3-1 mark in those games, while the Falcons and Bucs split their games, leaving the Bucs at 2-2 in that scenario.

If the Saints beat the Falcons tomorrow (1 p.m. ET, FOX), the Bucs will advance in a two-way tiebreaker with the Panthers.

The Bucs have the third tiebreaker edge in common games. The Panthers are 3-5 in the games against the NFC West and AFC East, while the Bucs are 4-4 in those games. The Panthers had wins over the Rams, Dolphins, and Jets, along with losses to the Seahawks, Bills, Patriots, 49ers, and Cardinals. The Buccaneers beat the Seahawks, 49ers, Cardinals, and Jets, while losing to the Patriots, Bills, Dolphins, and Rams. If it gets to that point, the Panthers’ Week 2 loss to the Cardinals on the road will loom large, since the Panthers have a 6-4 to 5-6 edge in conference record, which is the fourth tiebreaker.

That would be the most painful end of the season for a team that has steadily improved from two wins to five wins to eight in the past two seasons.

But if the Falcons win, the Panthers will still host the fifth seed in the NFC, which could be decided as soon as tonight’s Seahawks-49ers game (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN).