Orange juice futures (MAR) were lower again Tuesday, marking their eighth consecutive negative session. OJ hit a low of 385.50 cents per pound, its lowest level since May 9, 2024. This pullback comes despite futures reaching all-time highs in mid-December.
Market observers are surprised by the recent downturn, given ongoing supply constraints in Florida and Brazil. On Tuesday, the USDA revised its Florida orange production forecast downward to 11.5 million boxes—4% lower than the previous estimate and a 36% drop from last season.
Three key factors may be driving the decline, according to Danny Munch, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation:
First, orange juice prices have risen so high that consumers and food manufacturers may be shifting to alternatives, a classic case of demand destruction. This trend is exacerbated by growing concerns around sugar content in food and beverages.
Second, traders may believe that prices have peaked and production will eventually rebound. With OJ futures still well above five- and ten-year averages, investors could be taking profits, adding to the selling pressure.
Lastly, a strong dollar and potential tariff concerns make imported orange juice relatively cheaper. This currency effect could be softening price pressures despite supply tightness.
—Nick Wells
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— Brian Evans
Stock futures were little changed on Tuesday as investors look toward the January consumer price index report.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked down 7 points, or 0.02%. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.02%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.05% higher.
— Brian Evans