What I’m hearing about the NFL coaching carousel and the changes coming in Vegas

The Athletic has live coverage of Panthers vs. Buccaneers  and Seahawks vs. 49ers from NFL Week 18 action.

Sprinting the 25 feet from my front door to the car to escape the freezing air Saturday morning, I found it hard to imagine pacing that same driveway on an unreasonably humid August night, phone in hand, texting with a very reliable NFL source.

That was when I learned Micah Parsons wasn’t posturing. This wasn’t the usual theater that tends to accompany negotiations between Jerry Jones and star Dallas Cowboys players. Parsons was serious about wanting out of Dallas.

I grabbed a sticky note, wrote “Parsons/Dallas likely divorce: Story of the Year,” and slapped it on my kitchen bulletin board (as if I was going to forget).

We reported it the next morning, hours before Parsons made it public himself. And just like that, the NFL once again stunned everyone before a single snap was played.

As it turns out, that story of the year wasn’t just Parsons wanting out of Dallas; it was him actually getting traded to the Green Bay Packers weeks later.

And now, here we are.

Dallas will play its final game of the season with no playoffs ahead and questions swirling about the future of defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus after a season that even Jones acknowledged wasn’t good enough. Parsons, meanwhile, underwent ACL surgery last week after suffering the injury Dec. 14, while his Packers, losers of three straight, fight to stay alive deeper into January.

Time flies, and while the Parsons trade may still be the story of the year, there are plenty of competitors … and we haven’t even gotten to the playoffs.

The  bracket will be set in the next 48 hours. The postseason is days away. But before the league can fully turn the page to what’s next, the teams left behind — including Parsons’ former club — are already making moves, trying to make sure they aren’t in this same position a year from now.

Here’s what I’m hearing on:

• Uncertainty in Vegas
• The start of the coaching carousel
• The Minnesota Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy plans
• A loaded Coach of the Year race

Before we rush ahead to what could change, it’s important to acknowledge that not every owner or organization with questions to answer has made a final decision. Some are leaning toward moving on from head coaches or coordinators, and others are still allowing room for a strong finish to matter — because in this league, how you end things carries weight.

With that understanding, many teams have still done their homework. They’ve spent weeks quietly researching which coaches could be available and evaluating the hottest candidates in college football and the NFL.

As one NFL general manager put it: “I don’t think teams are going to be quick to fire head coaches who are already in place. This isn’t like last offseason, when Ben Johnson and Mike Vrabel were viewed as home-run hires. This could be a heavy coordinator-changing cycle. The pool of head coach candidates just isn’t strong.”

However, head coaches will be getting fired in January. That’s just the way it goes. And the action will start as soon as Week 18 ends.

The Raiders’ future

The Las Vegas Raiders have an inside track to the No. 1 pick in April’s draft and are likely headed toward a head-coaching change in 2026. That’s a significant amount of potential turnover, and the bigger question might not be whether 74-year-old Pete Carroll is dismissed, but who ultimately makes that decision. Is it principal owner Mark Davis? Minority owner Tom Brady? General manager John Spytek?

Maxx Crosby’s Raiders future is also being questioned around the league. Las Vegas shut down its five-time Pro Bowler last week against his wishes, and the relationship between the sides remains strained. It’s a dramatic shift from just two months ago, when Crosby and Davis nixed any trade discussions ahead of the Nov. 4 deadline. Many believe Las Vegas will be open to moving its star pass rusher if the relationship remains at an impasse, allowing Crosby, who will turn 29 this summer,  an opportunity to compete on a team built to win now.

The Giants’ and Titans’ head start

The two franchises already with openings, the New York Giants and Tennessee Titans, will begin remote interviews next week with candidates whose teams are out of the playoffs, with formal interview requests set to be submitted Monday. Giants general manager Joe Schoen will be leading the search for New York and appears to be safe for now.

Each team has a list of 10 to 15 potential candidates, though not all are expected to make it to the interview stage. In-person interviews can officially begin Jan. 19.

Among the names expected to interview for one or both jobs next week: Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, Indianapolis Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo and Washington Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.

Coordinators on playoff teams who are also expected to be in the mix include Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula, San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, Jacksonville Jaguars defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile and Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.

Browns intel

The Cleveland Browns have done some background work to gather information on potential head-coaching options, and are leaning toward moving on from two-time Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski. With the success of EVP and general manager Andrew Berry’s most recent draft, he’s likely to stay, but those discussions are ongoing heading into Cleveland’s final game at the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. The Browns are 4-12 after finishing 3-14 in 2024.

Tampa two

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ ownership group has always waited until the end of the season to have conversations about the futures of key decision-makers. Coach Todd Bowles and general manager Jason Licht, who both signed multiyear extensions in June, have won division titles each of the last three seasons and appear to be safe even if the Bucs miss the playoffs.

Injuries have decimated both sides of the ball in Tampa this season — particularly on offense — but the Bucs roll into Week 18 with a chance at a division crown and a home playoff game, a great opportunity considering the team has dropped seven of its last eight. The Bucs don’t control their playoff future, though: The Carolina Panthers win the division if they beat or tie the Bucs on Saturday, but even if Tampa Bay wins, an Atlanta Falcons victory or tie with the New Orleans Saints would eliminate the Bucs.

Commanders questions

Commanders coach Dan Quinn is expected back for the 2026 season, though changes to the offense and the defense remain possible after Washington has slumped to a 4-12 record. Quinn took over defensive play calling from Joe Whitt Jr. in early November, and Washington has also had conversations about potentially moving on from Kingsbury even if he doesn’t get a head-coaching job. Some in the building say there’s been a disconnect between Kingsbury and general manager Adam Peters. When was the last time we were watching to see if an offensive coordinator was going to get fired while he was also preparing for head coaching interviews? We’ll see how this shakes out.

The Commanders likely won’t make any final decisions until they see how the broader coaching market develops.

Cincinnati’s united front

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has been a consistent voice of support for coach Zac Taylor within the organization, as have receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Cincinnati ownership has made it clear they value Burrow’s perspective, and they’ve listened in the past. Despite a 6-10 season marred by a significant toe injury to Burrow, Taylor appears to be safe.

Aaron Glenn gets more time

The New York Jets (3-13) looked outmatched against the New England Patriots on Sunday, but Jets coach Aaron Glenn isn’t expected to lose his job. Owner Woody Johnson remains committed to the long-term vision for the team and wants to give Glenn more time to build it.

Not yet for one candidate

Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman seriously considered making the jump to the NFL, with multiple teams reaching out to gauge his interest, according to league sources. Though Freeman ultimately announced he’s staying at Notre Dame, there’s a strong belief around the league that this won’t be the last time his name is connected to NFL opportunities. The Giants, Titans and Browns all had internal discussions about Freeman, as did the Pittsburgh Steelers (in the event longtime coach Mike Tomlin decided to step away).

Atlanta’s process

Falcons owner Arthur Blank has brought in the consulting firm Sportsology to conduct an audit of the team. The firm, founded by Mike Forde, a former executive with Premier League club Chelsea, has been evaluating the Falcons’ football operations throughout much of the fall.

Former Houston Texans general manager Rick Smith is also part of this consulting group. Notably, Smith previously interviewed for the Falcons’ general manager position in late 2020 before the job was ultimately awarded to Terry Fontenot.

That work is expected to be weighed alongside the organization’s internal evaluations: two seasons (and a 15-18 record) under coach Raheem Morris, five seasons under Fontenot, how this year has unfolded, the perceived state of the roster and the franchise’s overall team-building approach. Many around the league expect the Falcons to move on from Fontenot and stick with Morris as coach. One potential added voice to the mix? Former quarterback Matt Ryan, who is in talks to return to the organization in a front-office role.

Assistant coaches leveling up?

Several young coaches around the league are generating real momentum as potential candidates for larger roles. Multiple head coaches and assistants have shared strong reviews and belief in a group that includes Jaguars offensive coordinator Grant Udinski, Denver Broncos quarterbacks coach Davis Webb and secondary coach Jim Leonhard, Carolina Panthers offensive coordinator Brad Idzik and Patriots passing game coordinator Thomas Brown.

A veteran name that’s on the radar, too: former Giants coach Brian Daboll. Many around the league expect Daboll to land an offensive coordinator job.

J.J. McCarthy’s status

Quarterback J.J. McCarthy will return to the Minnesota Vikings next season, but that doesn’t guarantee he’ll be the starter. The Vikings were looking for emphatic proof this season that he’s the long-term answer, and because of a series of injuries, they never got it. Over the next few months, sources say, Minnesota plans to explore established options via trade or free agency to strengthen its quarterback room.

It’s been a turbulent first two years for McCarthy. He missed his entire rookie season after tearing the meniscus in his right knee in August and was sidelined for seven games in 2025 because of ankle, head and hand injuries. When he was on the field, he struggled with accuracy and consistency, though late-season performances against the Commanders and Cowboys provided some encouragement.

Despite all the quarterback uncertainty and injuries, the Vikings will finish on the fringe of the postseason. A win over the Packers in the season finale would leave them 9-8 and just a half-game out of a playoff spot, a testament to Kevin O’Connell’s culture and the work he and defensive coordinator Brian Flores have put in.

Though Minnesota is open to bringing in veteran competition for the 22-year-old, O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah have no plans to move on from the quarterback they traded up to draft less than two years ago. McCarthy’s continued development will be a central storyline for the Vikings as they enter an offseason filled with questions surrounding their aging and expensive roster.

Sitting starters in Week 18?

How to treat the final week of the regular season isn’t about some universal philosophy that teams all share. It’s about honesty inside a given building.

The starting point is always health. Always. Coaches and front offices are asking one simple question when making decisions about the final game: “Are we protecting guys, or are we managing injuries that aren’t going to get better by pushing them out there one more time?”

But you can’t hide from the fact matchups matter for teams headed to the postseason, even if no one wants to admit it. Teams absolutely know whom they’d rather see and whom they’d prefer to avoid. That doesn’t mean they’re manipulating outcomes, but awareness is part of the conversation.

Then there’s the momentum-versus-rest debate. And that one isn’t theoretical. Some teams need to keep playing.

Take the Rams. They’re not resting anyone Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals. They want rhythm after two straight losses. They want to feel good about where they are. And an L.A. win coupled with some help from Seattle could land the Rams a first-round matchup with either Carolina — a revenge game that feels far more favorable than the alternatives — or a Buccaneers team they ripped apart in Week 12. Everyone in the Rams building knows that.

Now look at the Los Angeles Chargers. They face completely different math. The division is out of reach, Justin Herbert is beat up, and they know they’re likely in for a trip to either Jacksonville or New England. For them, this isn’t about positioning; it’s about survival.

That’s what this week really is: a team-by-team truth serum.

Decisions, decisions

The 2025 Coach of the Year race is shaping up to be one of the tightest in recent memory. And speaking as a voter, every time you think you’ve settled on one name, another case gets harder to ignore.

Ben Johnson has overseen a massive turnaround in Chicago, transforming the Bears’ offense from one of the league’s worst in 2024 into a top-10 unit in 2025, while delivering the franchise its first NFC North title since 2018.

Mike Vrabel took over a Patriots team that had combined for just eight wins over the previous two seasons and turned it into a 13-win group (and counting). Drake Maye is firmly in the MVP conversation, and New England owns the league’s only undefeated road record at 8-0.

Meanwhile, Liam Coen continues to validate his reputation as one of football’s top offensive minds, getting the most out of Trevor Lawrence as Jacksonville rides its longest winning streak since 1999.

And that’s just the first-year coaches with new teams — two of whom are first-time head coaches altogether.

Sean Payton’s build in Denver keeps gaining momentum. The Broncos are pushing for their first No. 1 seed in a decade and rank in the top 10 in offensive and defensive yardage.

DeMeco Ryans has led the Texans to the playoffs in all three of his seasons, overcoming an 0-3 start behind the league’s top-ranked defense.

Out west, Mike Macdonald continues to justify John Schneider’s faith, guiding the Seahawks atop a crowded NFC West and within one win of the conference’s top seed.

And Kyle Shanahan, as usual, is making it work with whoever is available, navigating injuries to Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Fred Warner and Nick Bosa, along with the absence of Brandon Aiyuk. San Francisco could still secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win Saturday night over Seattle.

That’s nearly a quarter of the league, and it doesn’t even account for the job Dave Canales has done in Carolina. Voters submit their pick this Monday, and I have no idea what to do here.

So we made it. The final week of the regular season. Now imagine hearing on a hot August night that Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow would miss the playoffs; the Broncos, Patriots and Jaguars would spend Week 18 competing for a first-round bye; Philip Rivers would un-retire and then re-retire; and Canales would be one win from Carolina’s first division title in a decade.

This is the best time of year. And the worst. And 2026 is only getting started.