Will Texas handing the Aggies their first loss send a 3-loss Horns team to the College Football Playoff?

By Sam Khan Jr., Stewart Mandel and Chris Vannini

AUSTIN, Texas — Once again, Texas has bragging rights over rival Texas A&M. And this conquest will be extra painful for the Aggies.

The Horns handed 11-0 A&M its first loss of the season Friday, costing the No. 3 Aggies a chance at their first-ever SEC championship with a comeback 27-17 win. Texas’s upset instead sent defending champ Georgia back to Atlanta, where the Dawgs will either face Alabama (if the Tide beat Auburn on Saturday), or Ole Miss.

Texas, which won last year’s first Lone Star Showdown following a 13-year hiatus, has not lost to A&M since 2010.

The Aggies led 10-3 at halftime behind a dominant defense that held Horns star Arch Manning to 51 passing yards. But Texas exploded in the second half, first behind the running of Quintrevion Wisner, followed by Manning’s awakening. He put his team up 13-10 with a 29-yard touchdown throw to Ryan Wingo, then the Horns took a 20-10 lead one play into the fourth quarter.

After A&M got back within 20-17, Manning darted for a dagger 35-yard touchdown run to go back up two scores with 7:04 remaining. Then Texas’ Michael Taaffe ended A&M’s last chance to get back in it by intercepting Marcel Reed at the Horns’ 3-yard line.

Playoff implications

The Horns have a case to make the CFP as a 9-3 team, given they now own wins over three current top 15 teams, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. And one of their losses was on the road at No. 1 Ohio State in Week 1. But there are a lot of two-loss teams currently in the mix for the last couple of at-large spots, and the Horns had a particularly bad loss at 3-8 Florida. According to The Athletic’s model, Texas has only a 4 percent chance to make the Playoff even with the win.

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian made the Horns’ case in his ABC postgame interview: “If you really look at the body of work, and if you look at the Southeastern Conference and what we have to go through every week. You look at the nonconference schedule we played to go to Ohio State in Week 1 and lose by 7, when we outgained them by nearly 200 yards. We have a really good football team.

“And it would be a disservice to our sport if this team is not a Playoff team when we went and scheduled that nonconference game. Because if we’re a 10-2 team, it’s not a question.”

A&M will still safely make the Playoff at 11-1, but will likely fall out of the top four. The Aggies won’t get a bye, but they will likely host a first-round game.

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— no context college football (@nocontextcfb) November 29, 2025

Manning’s maturation shows

Manning’s numbers weren’t pretty, but when Texas needed him the most, he came through. Manning converted multiple third downs with his legs up the middle, and his ability to evade pressure drew attention from Texas A&M safety Dalton Brooks, which left a wide-open Wingo in the end zone for a third-down touchdown pass. The throw sailed and nearly went over Wingo’s head, but Wingo was just able to bring it down.

Manning completed just five of his first 17 passes, but he got into a rhythm soon thereafter, completing nine of his next 12 attempts to flip the momentum. His 35-yard touchdown run, which gave the Longhorns a 10-point lead with 7:04 left, sealed the deal for Texas.

Despite such a rough start, Manning didn’t panic. It showed how he has matured. In September, after enduring some rough stretches that he couldn’t quite play his way out of, it was unknown if he would deliver upon the wild expectations place upon him. He still isn’t quite there yet, but his strong play down the stretch of this season and Friday night shows how much he has progressed.

Where Aggies go from here

Though the loss is not devastating to the Aggies in the big picture — they are still very much a national championship contender and a lock to make the CFP — it is a blow to the psyche that, once again, the Aggies could not defeat their hated rival. Not even when the Aggies came into Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium as an undefeated, favored team with a chance to go to the SEC Championship Game for the first time.

It’s A&M’s third straight loss in the series. The Aggies lost at home in the first matchup between the two since 2011. And, of course, Texas prevailed via a Justin Tucker kick at Kyle Field in 2011, before the Aggies fled to the SEC. This one will stick in their craw for a while, just like the last two did.

But missing the SEC title game is also a blow to a team that had its sights set on its first trip to Atlanta since joining the conference in 2012 and potentially its first conference title since 1998. Now, that’s out the window. The Aggies’ primary consolation is that they can still play for a national title if they get back on track.

Texas A&M offense sputters

Most of this season, the Aggies have terrorized opposing defenses with their considerable skill talent. Receivers KC Concepcion, Mario Craver and Ashton Bethel-Roman have helped turn A&M into one of the most dangerous offenses because of their ability to turn plays into big yardage and points.

But the Aggies were well off pace of their typical explosive nature. Going into Friday’s game, Texas A&M had 114 explosive plays, the 13th-highest total in the FBS, and averaged 10.4 explosive plays per game (TruMedia defines an explosive play as a run of 12 or more yards or a pass of 16 or more yards).

Through the first three quarters of Friday’s game, A&M had just three explosive plays. It picked up a handful more in its comeback attempt, including a 13-yard E.J. Smith run to pull A&M to within 3 points, but two interceptions by Reed killed the next two drives and A&M’s chances of knocking off its rival.

Texas’ run game comes alive

The Longhorns struggled to run the ball for much of the season. The last time they surpassed 100 rushing yards as a team was on Oct. 11 against Oklahoma. But Wisner and the Texas run game woke up on Friday, and it helped Texas pull off the upset.

After a solid first half on the ground, Wisner exploded in the third quarter with runs of 48, 16, 17 and 11 yards to help Texas move the chains and take pressure off Manning. Wisner’s season hasn’t been what he hoped after rushing for 1,064 yards last year. He was injured and missed three games in September and hadn’t reached the 100-yard mark in a game all season.

But when the Longhorns needed someone to step up, Wisner did, finishing with 155 yards on 19 carries.

Manning’s NFL Draft stock … in 2027

Manning showed two things in this game: why it would be a major gamble to draft him early in the 2026 NFL Draft, and why you would be silly to sell your Manning stock for the 2027 NFL Draft.

When it comes to reading the field while feeling the rush from the pocket, Manning’s inexperience is as noticeable as Clark Griswold’s house during Christmas. But Manning is an impressive athlete for his size, which makes him a problem for defenses when he buys time or scrambles.

On Manning’s touchdown pass, Texas A&M edge Cashius Howell found himself too far upfield and gave the quarterback an opening to extend to his left and hit Wingo for the 29-yard score. On Manning’s 35-yard, game-sealing touchdown run in the fourth-quarter, Texas ran split zone with five wide, which spread out Texas A&M’s defense, and Manning accelerated down its spine on the keeper. His athleticism and toughness were differentiating factors — and provide a great foundation for his upside in the eyes of NFL teams.

For Texas A&M, Concepcion made his explosiveness felt on offense and special teams, but Texas did a nice job limiting the Aggies’ big plays. The Aggies’ prospect who jumped out the most in this game was senior defensive tackle Tyler Onyedim, who was disruptive for all four quarters. The Iowa State transfer isn’t a household name, but he is a favorite among scouts because of his havoc-creating quickness. — Dane Brugler, senior NFL Draft analyst for The Athletic